Game · 2026 Week 6 · 10/10/2026
ILL @ MSU
Illinois
Michigan StateB1G+A projection26–22pick: ILL
Result38–37final
GradeHITmargin error 3 pts
ESPN FPI win %54%ESPN, not B1G+A · line ILL -2.5
B1G+A LIVE WIN PROB.
model log · last 6:10 PM CTHome (MSU) win probability from the B1G+A in-game model at each logged run. Our model, not ESPN.
PICK GRADES
Original post ↗| Market | B1G+A pick | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WINNER | ILL (54% FPI) | ILL won | Hit |
| SPREAD · ILL -2.5 | ILL -2.5 | ILL did not cover | Miss |
| TOTAL | OVER 47.5 | 75 total pts | Hit |
Data: data/games/2026/06/401858480.json
